Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) may have reached its peaked for now, dropping slightly in November as consumers report a more cynical view of homebuying conditions.
In November, the HPSI dipped 1.7 points month over month to 80 – marking its first drop after three straight months of increases. The index is down 11.5 points year-over-year.
“This follows the HPSI’s recovery of slightly more than half of the loss experienced during the first few months of the pandemic,” Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said.
Fannie Mae also reported that the sentiment gap between homeowners and renters was at a near survey high last month.
“Interestingly, the gap between the HPSI broken out by the homeowner and renter subgroups hit a survey high in August but, despite narrowing slightly, remains elevated and well above the survey average,” Duncan said.
Duncan explained that homeowners have regained more of their purchasing confidence than renters, “in part because homeowners have been less likely than renters to have had their jobs and finances impacted by the pandemic.”
Three of the six HPSI components fell month over month in November. Component highlights include:
The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased three percentage points to 57%
The net share of Americans who think it is a good time to sell posted a 2% month-over-month gain, up to 59%
The net share of Americans who expect home prices to go up in the next 12 months rose 8% to 41%
The net share of Americans who believe mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months went down 14 percentage points to 8%
The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months saw a decrease in November, down six percentage points to 76%
The net share of Americans who reported that their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago inched up three percentage points to 25%