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Warnock admitted that while his survey is designed to be robust and give solid nationwide numbers, it’s not necessarily as unassailable as the census data he’s comparing it to. He’s waiting for the 2020 data to show what he expects is the case, that people started moving more in 2020.
The preponderance of wealthy Americans in this trend, defined roughly as households earning between $100,000 and $150,000, appears largely as the result of the remote work boom. Remote workers tend to earn more than in-person workers as of now and often have different preferences regarding where they end up living and the amenities available to them. These aren’t necessarily the C-suite executives who will remain in job centers and urban cores. Rather, these are the well-paid tech workers who can do their jobs from anywhere.
These wealthier, more mobile buyers are motivated by a range of factors, but Warnock noted that affordability plays an absolutely crucial role in their decision. Many of these higher-earning workers still saw homeownership as out of reach in a city like San Francisco, but possible in St. Louis or Boise. At the same time, many movers were motivated to live closer to family, and other were seeking more physical space and access to nature after a year spent locked down in tiny apartments.
While this shift in mobility may have been sped up by the pandemic, Warnock doesn’t expect this to be a flash in the pan moment. Mobility driven by remote work, he said, will likely continue post pandemic with so many remote workers expecting to stay remote after this period ends. Well-heeled remote workers able to move freely, he explained, will be a likely feature of the housing and mortgage markets for years to come. Warnock thinks that’s good news for mortgage pros.